While everyone was concentrating on the primaries in New Hampshire, news of an “incident” with Iran nudged it’s way into the forefront of the news shows. Allegedly Iranian patrol boots threatened American war ships. Bush harshly criticized the Iranians, he made it clear that the U.S. would defend itself. Now we hear that this wasn’t the first incident with Iran.

I see this as a continuation of developments that have been intensifying for about one to one and a half years. A pattern is manifesting itself – with contradictions mind you – that seems to indicate an increase in tensions between the U.S. and Iran. There were the arrests of Iranians in Iraq by the U.S. in December 2006[1], Iranians holding British navy personnel in March 2007[2], Tightening of sanctions against Iran by the U.N. Security Council also in March 2007[3], the arrival of a second aircraft carrier in April 2007[4].

So what we have are several incidents of Iranians arresting or threatening the U.S. and its allies in the Gulf, a large U.S. military build up in the Golf and conflict around the Iranian atomic program.

One possible conclusion is that the Bush administration is attempting to provoke Iran into throwing the first punch giving Bush a legitimate cause to launch a military attack on Iran. There are rumors that Bush will deal with Iran before the end of his term[5].

Assuming this were true, then it is more or less Bush’s last chance to do so. A military campaign will most likely be conducted before May, due to the climate of the area.

The U.S. is in the middle of a presidential election. How does this calculate into such plans? What affect would a conflict with Iran have on the election? Why would Bush do this at this time? He is surely well aware that the U.S. is in the middle of elections.

Bush cannot be elected to another term. The start of a military conflict in Iran with less than one year left in Bush’s presidency may imply that Bush thinks he can win the conflict before his term end and he’ll go out a hero. A prolonged conflict may be used by Bush to justify calling off elections until the conflict is over. It may also be an attempt to initiate the conflict before a democratic victory would put a stop such plans. This would force the Democrats to continue the conflict. It may also be an attempt to revive patriotism to defeat the democrats.

I think and hope that these thoughts are completely off the wall, but there is a pattern there. What it exactly means, I don’t know.

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