For some reason it seems that the Republicans are not serious about winning the elections this fall. The fact that John McCain will probably win the presidential nomination gives the impression that stronger candidates are holding back. According to the International Herald Tribune[1] the number of Republican incumbents not seeking re-election is at a record high in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Finally the money raised by Republican candidates is far below that of their Democratic rivals.

It is very hard to believe that the Republicans are not interested in winning the elections. Looking back at the elections up to 2004, the Republicans fought scratching and biting to win. Nevertheless the Republican effort this year seems meek. The individual candidates of course are giving their all. John McCain, And Mitt Romney are no doubt intent on winning. The massive political machine behind G. W. Bush is missing in action, though.

It looks as though John McCain will win the Republican presidential nomination. This is a candidate who is not very popular among conservatives – the base of the Republican Party. Although age is not necessarily decisive, a candidate over seventy years old, though, is at a disadvantage. Not even Ronald Reagen was over 70, when he won his first term. It seems that when the Republicans believe that they have little chance of winning an election, as they did in 1996, they send an elderly Senator to run for President. (In 1996 Robert Dole, age 73 at the time, ran against a staggeringly popular Bill Clinton and lost big). This cannot be a serious Republican candidate. If Bush and those supporting him wanted to find someone to continue their course, they sure are doing a very discreet job of it. The fact that they chose a Vice President that would not run after Bush had finished his two terms is itself a curiosity in itself. They all seem to have abandoned ship

The fact that so many veteran Representatives and Senators are leaving Congress is also peculiar. Is this just a coincidence? It does not really seem like a concentrated effort to regain congress. Compared to the fire of the 1994 mid-term elections, where the Republicans in a massive effort regained control both houses after more than 40 years, the effort is less than tepid.

Money is a key indicator in elections. George W. Bush had in both elections a war chest the size of which had never before seen in presidential elections. This year its the Democratic candidates who are raising record amounts of money. The Democrats were never known for having donors, more generous and wealthier than the Republicans. Internet donations may be a new gold mine but the Republicans must have caught on to this by now.

The Republicans do not seem to be in this election. Why? Do they really think that they can leave a mess impossible for the Democrats to clean up so that they can defeat them easily in 2012. That would be quite a gamble, but not entirely unreasonable. At the moment it seems the most plausible.

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